Public Enquiry Project

Why the Democrats are so dangerous

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/06/28/politics2039EDT0165.DTL&type=printable

...Hillary Clinton told several hundred supporters -- some of whom had ponied up as much as $10,000 to attend -- to expect to lose some of the tax cuts passed by President Bush if Democrats win the White House and control of Congress.

"Many of you are well enough off that ... the tax cuts may have helped you," Sen. Clinton said. "We're saying that for America to get back on track, we're probably going to cut that short and not give it to you. We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good." ...

PERHAPS SOME DEMOCRATS ACTUALLY BELIEVE WHAT HILLARY THREATENS IS GOOD FOR AMERICA, AT LEAST THE STUPID ONES ANYWAY. THE REAL DEMOCRATS KNOW THAT THIS IS REALLY ABOUT THE DEMOCRAT LUST FOR POWER AND GREED FOR FEDERAL LARGESSE; AKA MY MONEY.

AS I'VE SAID BEFORE, THE DEMOCRAT PARTY IS A CONSPIRACY BETWEEN THE PRIVILEGED WHO EITHER INHERITED THEIR MONEY AND/OR GET IT FROM THE GOVERNMENT OR GOVERNMENT SUPPORTED INSTITUTIONS (ACADEMIA AND OTHERS) AND AMERICA'S LOSERS AT THE BOTTOM UNITED AGAINST THE HARD WORKING MIDDLE WHO ACTULLY MAKE AMERICA WORK.

THE MORE LOSERS WE HAVE IN AMERICA THE BETTER IT IS FOR THE DEMOCRATS, SO NATURALLY THEIR POLICIES ARE AIMED AT KEEPING LOSERS AS LOSERS.

ADRIAN

Prof Delong is so close yet still so far...

Brad is quoted in the NY times discussing Fed policy and the likelihood of near term inflation. Brad is, in my considered opinion, one of the better economists of our time except when his scientific sense is corrupted by his lust for the power he would have in a potential Democrat administration.

When he talks about Bush losing a million jobs and that we are 5 or 6 million jobs short of "where we should be," those are the words of a politician, not an economist.

According to the laws of ADRIAN'S ECONOMIC MOMENTUM, he's full of sh*t. The job peak he speaks so fondly of is nothing but the biggest economic bubble of all time just before it burst. Brad helped pump that bubble up to dangerous levels when he was part of the Clinton administration. He knew that a recession was needed in Clinton's second term to keep ECONOMIC MOMENTUM from pumping up that bubble but he grossly underestimated the damage that bubble's burst would do to our nation. He thought that building up job "creation" was worth it.

THE DELIBERATELY CREATED CLINTON BUBBLE WILL BE SEEN BY FUTURE ECONOMIC SCIENTISTS AS THE GREATEST ECONOMIC ERROR OF THE LAST PART OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY.

Here is some economic wisdom from Adrian the Commonsense economist. According to ADRIAN'S ECONOMIC MOMENTUM, the economic growth rate in good times must be balanced by the collapse rate in bad times, fluctuating around a trend line who's slope is the productivity growth rate plus a few other factors.

Government can play games with those rates (the noise), but private industry is where the real economic growth, in productivity, happens. Brad the great economist knows this but Brad the politician hates it.

Democrats want everyone to think that they "create jobs" and private industry exploits workers and destroys jobs.

THIS IS WHY BRAD WILL NEVER BE A REALLY GREAT ECONOMIST UNTIL HE BECOMES A REPUBLICAN. He needs to allign his inner scientific self with his outer politician.

Brad, please come home.

Adrian the commonsense economist

Prof Delong still doesn't understand economic momentum

Reading Brad's following post got me excited as I was hoping to find evidence that he understands economic momentum and thus understands economics. Alas, close but no cigar.

Brad rightfully points out the difference between levels and rates of change in employment figuires while totally missing the obvious. I'll call the following relationship "Adrian's law of economic momentum" since I haven't seen Brad or anyone else mention it yet:

1 - An economy in motion tends to stay in motion.

2 - This is a measurable factor called economic momentum.

3 - ECONOMIC MOMENTUM = the rate of change of the economy times the level of the economy; or

EM = THE CHANGE IN GNP OVER A TIME PERIOD X THE VALUE OF THE GNP

The first factor is an differential and the second factor is an integral.

4 - This results in a graphable curve that would allow us to relate economic shocks and effects solving the time delay problem in relating economic levels and administration actions.

Adrian the commonsense economist

A conversation about evolution

X said:

<>

You are correct in your musings, there is not enough time to get from algae to people in 3.5 billion years using classical natural selection. Biology researcher Stuart Kaufman makes this clear using the concept of an adaptive walk on a fitness landscape. If you take a point on a random (chaotic) fitness landscape, you will find that the adjacent points will vary wildly in value and half will be more fit and half will be less fit. Using random variation and natural selection in this environment wouldn’t get you from algae to viruses in 3.5 billion years.

The answer to the problem of people in only 3.5 billion years of evolution is a correlated fitness landscape. The massive reduction in phase space thus resulting can only be caused by as yet undiscovered natural laws that cause spontaneous organization in complex systems. There is no need for magic or theology, just more research. Many gizmos we take for granted would seem like magic to our grandparents. I’m sure we will some day understand the mechanisms of emergent properties.

X, my friend, you are much brighter than me, so I am sure that you can dream up scenarios that would be difficult for me to cope with, therefore, I strongly recommend that you get Kaufman’s book “At Home in the Universe” and I would be thrilled to continue this enquiry with you.

BTW, I think Determinism is mandatory in a Newtonian universe and impossible in a Quantum Mechanical universe.

Adrian

P.S. Do you agree that life, intelligence and God could be EPs?

The Nature of Wisdom

The Nature of Wisdom

Not long ago, my son asked me why old people think they’re so much smarter than young people. He did not accept my answer – We have more experience – by correctly pointing out that he’s known many old (experienced) people who couldn’t analyze anything correctly and were generally incompetent. These questions are arising again as we each try to predict the future of our economy. I guess the burden of having intelligent children never ends.

So here’s an attempt to answer his question. In my experience, really bright young people tend to be iconoclastic masters of linear logic. It’s almost like they have chosen to model their understanding on the Vulcan logic of Mr. Spock of Star Trek fame. Their simple-minded “logic” is king for them. The problem is that, in my experience, most people’s logical processes are unidimensional. Real world problems are multidimensional. All complex systems, including the entire universe, are made up of multiple independent feedback loops.

In other words, real world problems are made up of many independent factors and processes that catalyze or dampen each other. Thus I’ve seen decisions based on flawless analysis of one or two factors and processes turn out to have been the wrong decision.

ANY ANALYSIS THAT IS UNIDIMENSIONAL IS OBVIOUSLY WRONG. Even two or three dimensions of analysis are suspect. I don’t know for sure, but my intuition tells me that between three and ten dimensions of analysis should provide around 85% accuracy. I am further amazed how professional scientists who routinely utilize multidimensional analysis in their fields of expertise relax to unidimensional analysis in the rest of their life.

The universe being made up of independent feedback loops that catalyze or dampen each other means that all actions are either (on balance) accelerated or opposed. For example, this is what makes government interventions so unpredictable in their effects. The unintended consequences frequently (usually) far out weigh the intended consequences of government interventions because the policy development process is, in the end, unidimensional (bidimensional at best).

This is why intelligent old people are wiser than intelligent young people. Us old folks have experienced enough failure that we aren’t so easily seduced by an apparently great argument.

Adrian

The Evolution of the SOCIAL CONTRACT

The Evolution of the SOCIAL CONTRACT

I am nearing the end of my Father’s Day present – “The Origin of Life” by John Maynard Smith and Sza…. (sp?). I have just finished the section on the evolution of stable human societies. Like all complex systems, human societies are made up of countervailing processes acting on the system components. (I have read widely – not deeply - in the areas of history, physics, biology, marketing, politics, language, philosophy, art and economics. I am driven by a search for paradigms that operate in all domains).

The authors make the interesting case that one needs effective models to understand complex systems, but that any model made up of too many relationships and variables will predict anything depending on the initial assumptions and thus is TOTALLY USELESS. The challenge is then to design a simple model that can predict the outcomes of complex systems. Such a conundrum...

Anyhow, the authors (two biologists) use “The Social Contract Game” as their simplified model for a stable human society. The main processes in their model are a “law of the jungle” kind of natural selection countered by cooperation among the populations. They had extrapolated this model, believe it or not, from the well-known insect societies (ants, bees and termites).

They posit that a stable society must be governed by LAWS that enforce cooperation that are supported by MYTHS and RITUALS. DEFECTORS must be punished for their derelictions to prevent individuals from taking advantage of the law-abiding populace. Most interestingly, they insist that all society members MUST PARTICIPATE in the punishment of defectors.

By their definition the US is not a stable society. One might wonder if a stable society is worth the tradeoffs required. I THINK IT IS. The goal is then how do you maintain a stable society consistent with modern democratic sensibilities.

I believe that biology is the most complex system of all (physics is more subtle but much less complicated), and that many of the paradigms and processes we discover in our researches into the mechanisms of life will have application in politics. Given that the future of biotechnology will be shaped by our politics (I know you hate politics, BUT POLITICS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT HUMAN ENDEAVOR, … it is nothing less than the total determination of the parameters of our lives), it is crucial to the success and survival of our species that we make a real science out of political science.

Adrian

The Democrat Party is an organized gang headed by pampered social, academic, professional, elite upper classes...

The Democrat Party is an organized gang headed by pampered social, academic, professional, elite upper classes, that forcefully extracts hard-earned resources from ambitious and entrepreneurial middle classes, that are then taken as booty by themselves, and the remainder dribbled out in various social schemes to the incompetent, lazy lower classes to buy votes and assuage their guilt.

Adrian Spidle

Relative Signal to Noise Ratio of Liberal Blog Posters and Conservative Blog Posters

Relative Signal to Noise Ratio of Liberal Blog Posters and Conservative Blog Posters

I finally did it. I isolated representative samples of conservative and liberal posters on various blogs plus 100 of my posts, a total of 5 samples of 100 posts each. I then measured the Signal to Noise Ratios of them in the following manner:

1 – I counted the total number of words in each sample.

2 – I then counted the total number of words that pertained to critically thought out ideas in each sample.

3 – I then counted the total number of words that pertained to insults or disses in each sample.

N.B. the numbers don’t add because some words had dual pertaintions (a new word) and others were just schmoozing.

Following are the final results:

1 – Liberal blog postings are 83.47% noise

2 – Conservative blog postings are 37.69% noise

3 – Adrian’s blog posts are 21.15% noise

Obviously this proves that liberals are much more nasty and disrespectful than conservatives and their political beliefs are much more supported by emotion than reason.

Adrian

Democrats can never be real men because...

REAL MEN work for themselves…

Or they at least plan to work for themselves someday. Always keep this in mind as you develop your career. Pay attention to the economics of your field (Profits, losses, marketing/sales and balance sheets) with a mind towards profiting from it as soon as you can. When you are your own boss:

1 – YOU MAKE THE POLITICS.

2 – Your success or failure is YOURS to be proud of or learn from.

3 - YOU determine when, with whom and where you work.

4 – A FAMILY BUSINESS is great for bringing up and enjoying your wife and kids.

GETTING STARTED is the hardest part. Obviously, be prepared to work long and hard at first. But, above all, DON”T TAKE WORK IF IT ISN’T PROFITABLE!! and make sure you know it’s profitable.

Your accountant should be your BEST FRIEND because you must always know your financial position and if you really are making profits.. LAWYERS are only for screwing others or preventing screwing from others and you should TRY LIKE HELL not to screw others or do business with people who you think might screw you.

Decide up front if you want to be a GROWTH company or a LIFESTYLE company. My wife and I chose a LIFESTYLE. For us that means always making a profit on each and every job and constantly strengthening the balance sheet while, at the same time, making our clients love us.

Many of my competitors who aimed for GROWTH are now out of business because they tried to BUY GROWTH with unprofitable terms and prices.

Last but not least, love your help and treat them like family.

The Brooklyn Perspective

The Brooklyn Perspective
By Adrian Spidle

The Brooklyn born psychologist Abraham Mazlow brilliantly defined the basis of the Human Condition in his book “Toward a Psychology of Being” wherein he explained the “Hierarchy of Human Needs.”
MAZLOW’S Hierarchy of Needs.
• Five Stages of Human Needs
1. Physiological needs
 Air
 Food
 Water
 Shelter
2. Needs for safety and stability
 Stability of life
 Material gain
 To stay away from danger
3. Social desire
 To be a member
 To gain a reputation
 To be trusted
4. Needs for self
 To be recognized by others
 To be self-dependent
 To be confident of self
 To be responsible for own work
5. Needs for self realization
 To be creative
 To show own capability
 To realize hidden ability

As a graduate of Brooklyn Technical High School, I add the following:

Adrian’s Hierarchy of Contributors
• Six Stages of Human Generosity
1. Gives to one’s self only
a. Sociopaths and criminals
2. Gives to one’s family only
a. Can’t trust anyone else
b. People who live in an unstable political/social environment
3. Gives to one’s ethnic, tribal and/or religious equals only
a. Used by Totalitarian Demagagues seeking power and wealth
b. People who live in an cohesive group surrounded by enemies
4. Gives other peoples resources to those in need
a. Used by Social Democratic Demagogues seeking power
b. Caps the needy at Mazlow’s level 3
5. Gives own resources to those in need
a. True generosity
b. Caps the needy in Mazlow’s level 3
6. Supports those in need to marshall their own resources to meet their own needs
a. True wisdom
b. Supports the needy’s achievement of Mazlow’s levels 4 and 5