Should Ken Mehlman Really Be Boasting About Employment? Paul Krugman's Take
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2004_archives/000898.html
Paul Krugman writes about the employment situation:
The New York Times > Opinion > Op-Ed Columnist: Delusions of Triumph: Republicans, we hear, are frustrated by polls showing that the public has a poor opinion of George Bush's economic leadership. In their view, the good news about Mr. Bush's economic triumphs is being drowned out by the bad news from Iraq.... But is the economic news really that good? No. While the recent economic performance is better than in the administration's first three years, it isn't at all exceptional by historical standards. And after those three terrible years, the economy has a lot of ground to make up...
Phew... This is the best economic thought that the left can muster? Their analysis is totally worthless because they select the data to prove their political points. Here's what these "geniuses" left out:
1 - ECONOMIC MOMENTUM, there is a long delay in turning a large super tanker from when you turn the wheel 'till the ship completes its' turn. The phenomenon this illustrates is MOMENTUM. Momentum = Mass X Velocity. This phenomenon also applies to our Economy. The fact that Delong and Krugman ignore this phenomena totally discredits the value of their analyses and any policy they would recomend based on their analysis.
Brad, my friend... Show me my error if you can.
2 - They totally ignore the two great shocks - The Internet Bubble Bust and 911 - which were chatastrophic momentum killers, from their analyses. The fact that Delong and Krugman ignore this phenomena totally discredits the value of their analyses and any policy they would recomend based on their analysis.
Brad, my friend... Show me my error if you can.
I'm getting more and more convinced that Left Wing MACROECONOMIC THEORY is really just a sneaky attempt to import to an unsuspecting America the CENTRAL PLANNING that failed so utterly in the Communist World.
Adrian the Commonsense Economist
"Economic momentum" doesn't usually take three years to reverse. I've heard of lagging indicators, of course, but a three-year lag in employment? Is that really what you're suggesting? Come on.
As far as 9/11 being a catastrophic momentum killer, do you have anything beyond your assertation to back that up? Not saying it isn't possible, but facts are always preferable to vague feelings . . .
Posted by: Ed Zeppelin | May 26, 2004 at 04:11 PM
Hey,
I think Ed Z makes a couple good points there, but there is more. Krugman's point is not that "momentum" is meaningless is general, but that it is somewhat meaningless is terms of perception. The fact is that we are about 2.3- 2.4 million jobs short of where we were before Bush, and considering that the job force grows by 140,000 each month, we're about 8 million short of a similar employment status in real terms. In addition, as far as perception goes, the administration has been bragging without a break about how great things are in the economy for two years, even as it was plain to all that it was horrible, so they shouldn't be surprised if good news (albeit minor) goes the way of the boy who cried wolf. But more importantly, people don't react to monthly job numbers, they react to reality, and that is still a lot worse than it was four years ago. And furthermore, not many Dems or liberals have blamed Bush for the recession itself, and virtually all were willing to give some leeway for 9/11, the internet bubble, etc., but what we blame him for is that the recovery started almost two years ago, and his "supply side" (repay your donors) tax plan managed to make sure all the benefits of the recovery went to the top, while simulatenaously piling up literally trillions of $'s in deficits. Supply side is dead and disproven, and yet he still wants more tax cuts for the rich. As Rove would say, "Stick to principle, stick to principle..." Only Rove would call emptying the treasury into the pockets of their donors at EVERY possible opportunity a "principle."
Posted by: jesselee | May 26, 2004 at 04:28 PM
"Economic momentum" doesn't usually take three years to reverse. I've heard of lagging indicators, of course, but a three-year lag in employment? Is that really what you're suggesting? Come on.
As far as 9/11 being a catastrophic momentum killer, do you have anything beyond your assertation to back that up? Not saying it isn't possible, but facts are always preferable to vague feelings . . .
Posted by: Ed Zeppelin "
These are great questions, Ed, but try as I might I haven't been able to find any serious work by economists on how to measure economic momentum or the economic analogs of mass and velocity. Until they take this into account Delong and Krugman have no right to expect their analyses to be taken seriously.
I don't know the answer, but I know what ain't the answer.
Adrian the commonsense economist
Posted by: Adrian Spidle | May 26, 2004 at 04:45 PM
Let me see if I understand. Because "economic momentum" is not a well-defined or well-accepted concept, the work of Delong and Krugman is invalid because they *fail* to take into account the impact of "economic momentum" in their forecasts? Huh?
Posted by: Squid | May 26, 2004 at 06:34 PM
Let me see if I understand. Because "economic momentum" is not a well-defined or well-accepted concept, the work of Delong and Krugman is invalid because they *fail* to take into account the impact of "economic momentum" in their forecasts? Huh?
Posted by: Squid
THIS MAY COME AS A SURPRISE TO YOU, BUT NOT EVERYTHING IS KNOWN ABOUT HOW ECONOMIES WORK. IT SHOULD BE INTUITIVELY OBVIOUS TO EVEN THE MOST CASUAL OBSERVER THAT ECONOMICS AND PHYSICS OPERATE ON THE SAME TEMPLATE WITH DIFFERENT BUT ANALAGOUS FACTORS.
Adrian
Posted by: Adrian Spidle | May 26, 2004 at 07:08 PM
Well, in econometrics lagged variables is very common. This basically amounts to the same thing as "economic momentum".
Posted by: Martin Enlund | May 27, 2004 at 04:50 AM
Well, in econometrics lagged variables is very common. This basically amounts to the same thing as "economic momentum".
Posted by: Martin Enlund
Well, in football, a really big guy smashing into a little guy is very common. This basically amounts to the same thing as "momentum".
Yeah sure, but Newton sure showed us how to better deal with momentum, mass, velocity, force, etc.
I'm still waiting for some economist to show me the way.
Adrian
Posted by: Adrian Spidle | May 27, 2004 at 09:57 AM
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