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July 22, 2004

Comments

sphinx

"A - The great bust of 2001 was the result of the decision of the Clinton administration to not take a recession in 1996 or 1997 which allowed the runaway boom (accelerating economic momentum) that crashed so devistatingly in 2001."


Huh? And just what was Clinton supposed to have done to "take a recession?" The main economic policy happening of that time was that a Republican Congress had balanced the budget, reformed welfare, and cut taxes, all over the bitter opposition, naturally, of Clinton and the dems. Inflation and unemployment were low, the budget was balanced, the dollar was strong, etc. Pretty good times. The Gingrich-Armey boom.

It will take wiser heads than mine to sort out and properly weigh the contributing factors to the bubble. I suppose the natural tendency of a long boom to overshoot is one ingredient. The dotcoms overheated and the Y2K maneuvering figured in as well. I suppose it is a fair criticism that the feds were asleep at the switch on unsound public offerings and the Enron-Worldcom cooking of the books, but that's not the same thing as saying that the government should have deliberately "taken a recession."


posted on 07/22/2004 10:47:24 AM EDT by sphinx

Adrian Spidle

...Huh? And just what was Clinton supposed to have done to "take a recession?" ...

posted on 07/22/2004 10:47:24 AM EDT by sphinx

GREAT QUESTION MY FRIEND. YOU EVEN KNOW THE ANSWER. YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY CORRECT WHEN YOU SAID " I suppose the natural tendency of a long boom to overshoot is one ingredient."

YOUR ONLY ERROR IS NOT WEIGHING THE ECONOMIC MOMENTUM MAGNITUDES OF THE VARIOUS EVENTS PROPERLY. IN A BOOM OR BUST, THE ECONOMIES MOMENTUM IS THE PRIME FORCE - IT HAS THE GREATEST MAGNITUDE OR POWER.

AN ECONOMY IS LIKE A BUCKING BRONCO THAT MUST BE TAMED WHEN IT GETS TO RAMBUNCTIOUS.

IN OUR ECONOMY, YOU CAN USE EITHER FISCAL POLICY OR MOMETARY POLICY TO TAME A RAMBUNCTIOUS ECONOMY. FISCAL POLICY TENDS TO BE PERMANENT OR NEARLY PERMANENT SO MONETARY POLICY IS THE TOOL OF CHOICE. THAT IS TO SAY THE FED SHOULD HAVE "EASED" RATES UP IN 96 OR 97 TO COOL OFF THE ECONOMY AND "TAKE A RECESSION" THEN IN ORDER TO HEAD OFF THE TRAINB WRECK OF 2001.

ADRIAN THE COMMONSENSE ECONOMIST

wayoverontheright

To: AdrianSpidle
They are two very important points to make, I plan to use them in my next debate with my lefty brother.

I think I really nailed him last time we argued tax cuts, with my question "Do you really want your employer to be the declared enemy of this country's tax policy?" You know, brother, the dude who signs your checks?"


posted on 07/22/2004 10:38:18 AM EDT by wayoverontheright

herbissimusgearloose

as usual commonsense is exactly that:
the earth is flat
airplanes can't fly
protons,neutrons,electrons are the smallest particles.
so...
in the domain of economics try as concepts
regression to the mean
random price movement
u.s shrinking share- hence influence- of world economy.
whatever short term economic truth might be. in the longer term- out a decade or so- demographic shifts- ageing in u.s.- burdens on economy- military spending- high debt levels- both public and private- net importation of capital- relative advance in the educational levels of foreign populations- all will negatively impact u.s. prosperity- put this in your pipe and smoke it!!

Michael Carroll

Please look up the word "Deficit" in the dictionary. If you want to brace yourself for the DNC, that is the word you need to come terms with, and no, there is no fallacy there.

I may not want to punish my employer to benefit myself by I *certainly* don't want to punish my kids, my grand kids and their kids to benefit my employer. There is a balance here afterall, and a five year extension on the tax cuts would certainly be moving away from it.

Put the hocus pocus aside, please. If you want an impartial scoop, read the financial firms web pages. Morgan Stanley's GEF page is a good one for starters, also try Buttonwood in the Economist. These people are trying to make money. None of them have said "Vote Kerry" but none of them seem too amused about the current administration's defecit spending.

You can't blame the left for what a Republican President, a Republican Senate, and a Republican House do, although apparently some of the less enlightened of your ilk will certainly try.

Adrian Spidle

in the domain of economics try as concepts
regression to the mean

ONE VARIABLE AMONG MANY OF DIFFERENT RELATIVE MAGNITUDE

random price movement

ANOTHER VARIABLE AMONG MANY OF DIFFERENT RELATIVE MAGNITUDE

u.s shrinking share- hence influence- of world economy.

TOTALLY WRONG. THE EXACT OPPOSITE IS HAPPENING. PLEASE SEE:

http://pep.typepad.com/public_enquiry_project/files/fed_stats.xls

whatever short term economic truth might be. in the longer term- out a decade or so- demographic shifts- ageing in u.s.- burdens on economy- military spending- high debt levels- both public and private- net importation of capital- relative advance in the educational levels of foreign populations- all will negatively impact u.s. prosperity- put this in your pipe and smoke it!!

Posted by: herbissimusgearloose

HERBIE OLD PAL, STRINGING TOGETHER RANDOM DATA POINTS AND THOUGHTS DOES NOT MAKE A COHERENT ARGUMENT.

ADRIAN

Adrian Spidle

Please look up the word "Deficit" in the dictionary.

WELL, LET ME TELL YOU WHAT I KNOW ABOUT OUR DEFICIT:

1 - FOR 2004 IT'S LESS THAN 4% OF GDP

2 - FOR 2004 IT'S ABOUT $1,300 PER CAPITA

3 - FOR 2004 TOTAL US GOV DEBTS ARE LESS THAN $8 TRILLION WHILE TOTAL US ASSETS ARE OVER 55 TRILLION. TOTAL GOV DEBT IS LESS THAN 15% OF US NET WORTH. PRETTY GOOD BY ANY STANDARD.

If you want to brace yourself for the DNC, that is the word you need to come terms with, and no, there is no fallacy there.

US MARGINAL TAX RATES ARE AROUND 35% COMPARED TO THE 45% TO 50% OF THE EUROSOCIALIST NATIONS YOU NO DOUBT ADMIRE. IN ADDITION, OUR SALES TAXES AVERAGE AROUND 5% WHILE EUROSOCIALIST VATS ARE BETWEEN 16% AND 20%. FOR THIS THE AVERAGE AMERICAN HOUSEHOLD HAS $9,000 MORE TO SPEND PER YEAR AND TWICE THE LIVING SPACE THAN YOUR EUROSOCIALIST ALLIES.


I may not want to punish my employer to benefit myself by I *certainly* don't want to punish my kids, my grand kids and their kids to benefit my employer. There is a balance here afterall, and a five year extension on the tax cuts would certainly be moving away from it.

CAN YOU READ? TAX RATE CUTS INCREASE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND TAX RECEIPTS. YOU GOT THIS BACKWARDS.

Put the hocus pocus aside, please. If you want an impartial scoop, read the financial firms web pages. Morgan Stanley's GEF page is a good one for starters, also try Buttonwood in the Economist. These people are trying to make money. None of them have said "Vote Kerry" but none of them seem too amused about the current administration's defecit spending.

You can't blame the left for what a Republican President, a Republican Senate, and a Republican House do, although apparently some of the less enlightened of your ilk will certainly try.

Posted by: Michael Carroll

CATCH UP WITH REALITY MY FRIEND.

ADRIAN

A Real Conservative

I started looking at your blog because of its stated purpose...You remember...to increase understanding? But all you do is belittle those who disagree with you, as if you have a monopoly on truth and insight. And I don't even disagree with you that much, although your arguments are anything but emotional ejaculation. But the hatred you expouse is too much, and the hypocrisy from what you say your blog is and what it really is is worse than anything you compain about from politicians.

So I'm going to do what any consumer has the ability to do...take my business elsewhere.

You really blew it. I was truly looking forward to seeing something inspiring here. But you've convinced me that you're just hateful and spiteful and not worth my time.

And before you start putting your labels on me...I'm a Republican, and so conservative that I vote Libertarian when the opprtunity arises.

Adrian Spidle

...You really blew it. I was truly looking forward to seeing something inspiring here. But you've convinced me that you're just hateful and spiteful and not worth my time...

Posted by: A Real Conservative

AW C'MON, RC, PLEASE TRY AGAIN. INSTEAD OF OVER BROAD DEROGATORY GENERALIZATIONS, WHY NOT ARGUE SOME OF THE ACTUAL POINTS I'VE MADE.

I CAN BE NICE, SOMETIMES, BUT CAN'T WE ALL HAVE A LITTLE FUN DURING THIS CRAZY SEASON?

YOUR PAL,

ADRIAN

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